Sunday, Aug. 14 & Monday, Aug. 15 Outlook

Ample moisture and active sea breezes favor thunderstorm development around MIA on Sunday

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If you have questions about the content of this outlook, the answers might be in this post. Otherwise, let us know if something doesn’t make sense (we welcome feedback of all kinds!).

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Sunday, August 13

We forecast TSA will screen 2.370 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.31-2.43 million travelers).

The monsoonal moisture plume will shift slightly southward on Sunday, allowing increased shower and thunderstorm chances to creep from the mountains to plains. Across the Gulf and Southeast, tropical moisture and a decaying frontal boundary will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms; for South Florida, active sea breezes look to be a sufficient trigger for convective development.

Monday, August 14

We forecast TSA will screen 2.306 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.24-2.37million travelers).

Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure will have moved into the Ohio Valley and Appalachians by Monday, producing showers and thunderstorms.

You can check out hourly estimates in this workbook.