Monday, Sep. 19 & Tuesday, Sep. 20 Outlook
Monday, Sep. 19 & Tuesday, Sep. 20 Outlook
We manually nudge our disruption chances up for NYC on Monday, down for ORD on Tuesday.
Welcome to any new readers! And as a reminder to long-ish time readers, we’re testing a new format for these outlooks. To both old and new—we’re grateful you’re here.
If you have questions about the content of this outlook, the answers might be in this post (we keep adding to it). Otherwise, let us know if something doesn’t make sense (we welcome feedback of all kinds!).
Monday, September 19
We forecast TSA will screen 2.260 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.20-2.32 million travelers).
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Northeast ahead of and along a slow-moving frontal system that tracks across the Upper Great Lakes today. Our chances for disruption are likely under-done for NYC (especially JFK), as our Excel-based model struggled to find instances of southwest winds and thunderstorms in its limited NYC history.
Tuesday, September 20
We forecast TSA will screen 1.923 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 1.86-1.98 million travelers).
If our Monday NYC chances are a bit underdone, it’s balanced by some arguably overdone chances for ORD on Tuesday. Some weather models develop convection over the Upper Mississippi Valley early Tuesday associated with a subtle disturbance. If it develops, thunderstorms would be on a southeastward trajectory towards Northern Illinois, though there’d be a sharp cutoff around ORD.
You can check out1 hourly estimates in this workbook.
While it links to a Google Sheet, it’s an Excel file and relies on the XLOOKUP function, which does not exist in Sheets. You can download the file and open in Excel, which should resolve the #NAME? error; if any readers don’t have Excel, let us know and we can work on a solution.