Sun Nov 6 & Mon Nov 7
Showers associated with stalled cold front focus mostly northwest of NYC (though it's perhaps not the best running weather).
Welcome to any new readers! And as a reminder to long-ish time readers, we’re testing a new format for these outlooks. To both old and new—we’re grateful you’re here.
If you have questions about the content of this outlook, the answers might be in this post (we keep adding to it). Otherwise, let us know if something doesn’t make sense (we welcome feedback of all kinds!).
Sunday, November 6
We forecast TSA will screen 2.281 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.22-2.34 million travelers).
A cold front stalls west of NYC, though shower chances top out around 20% for the metro area—and only briefly1. While we normally wouldn’t concern ourselves with humidity and temperature, the marathon prompts us to take a peek (it also happens to mark one year since our first outlook). To that end, a deep southerly flow will (unfortunately?) promote near-record warmth2, with a forecast high of 71° (and with dewpoints in the low- to mid-60’s, it should feel at least a touch humid too).
While the cold front also stalls west of CLT, rain chances are slower to taper off from west to east. Daytime heating may also support a rumble of thunder, though strong/severe storms are not expected.
Monday, November 7
We forecast TSA will screen 2.119 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.06-2.18 million travelers).
The cold front that stalls west of NYC receives a nudge Sunday night into Monday morning; as it pushes east across the region, a few showers could reach the metro area during the morning (though like Sunday, coverage is better to the northwest).
A warm front is dragged northward through the DFW-area: cloudy, drizzly conditions ahead of the front will give way only to showery conditions post-frontal passage.
You can check out3 hourly estimates in this workbook.
The record high for NYC on November 6 is 74°.
While it links to a Google Sheet, it’s an Excel file and relies on the XLOOKUP function, which does not exist in Sheets. You can download the file and open in Excel, which should resolve the #NAME? error; if any readers don’t have Excel, let us know and we can work on a solution.