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Sun Oct 2 & Mon Oct 3 Outlook
Increasingly disorganized Ian spreads rain across Mid-Atlantic and Northeast before redeveloping as coastal low
Welcome to any new readers! And as a reminder to long-ish time readers, we’re testing a new format for these outlooks. To both old and new—we’re grateful you’re here.
If you have questions about the content of this outlook, the answers might be in this post (we keep adding to it). Otherwise, let us know if something doesn’t make sense (we welcome feedback of all kinds!).
Sunday, October 2
We forecast TSA will screen 2.178 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.12-2.24 million travelers).
The rain shield associated with now-post-tropical Ian will extend far beyond its center (currently moving north-northwestward across central North Carolina). For EWR, the more notably feature may be an increasing easterly flow—there’s enough of a northerly component forecast at the moment to allow usage of runway 4L and 4R, but should direction veer more southerly, we could see (the rare) runway 11 usage.
Out west, low pressure aloft will keep weather unsettled around DEN, with chances for scattered showers and isolated thunder increasing through the day.
Monday, October 3
We forecast TSA will screen 2.096 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.03-2.16 million travelers).
Remnants of Ian continue to lose organization, eventually absorbing a piece of energy emerging from the northwest and redeveloping as a coastal low pressure system. There’s some uncertainty around how far off the Mid-Atlantic coast this low will sit; guidance is trending drier, but there remains at least a slight chance for showers in the vicinity of NYC and DCA.
You can check outhourly estimates in this workbook.
While it links to a Google Sheet, it’s an Excel file and relies on the XLOOKUP function, which does not exist in Sheets. You can download the file and open in Excel, which should resolve the #NAME? error; if any readers don’t have Excel, let us know and we can work on a solution.