Welcome to any new readers! And as a reminder to long-ish time readers, we’re testing a new format for these outlooks. To both old and new—we’re grateful you’re here.

If you have questions about the content of this outlook, the answers might be in this post (we keep adding to it). Otherwise, let us know if something doesn’t make sense (we welcome feedback of all kinds!).

Sunday, October 30

We forecast TSA will screen 2.415 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.35-2.48 million travelers).

Despite thunderstorm hatching around ATL, the forecast discussion indicates instability is marginal and any isolated thunderstorms should become more showery as they translate east.

Perhaps more notable is the start of the IATA Northern Winter 2022/2023 season. On Sunday, the transition looks to briefly peak EWR’s scheduled arrival demand in the 4 p.m. hour at 46; this relaxes only somewhat and appears to settle in around 44 for the rest of the month. More broadly, the retraction of COVID-related slot usage waivers has stoked NYC scheduled demand to the tune of 5.4%1, including 9.8% at EWR.

Monday, October 31

We forecast TSA will screen 2.229 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.23-2.35 million travelers).

Again the thunderstorm hatching may be overdone—this time as it relates to CLT, where the forecast discussion suggests precipitation is more likely for the higher terrains of western NC.

Ahead of a weak cold front, some showers are possible for NYC, though most models keep the area dry.

Halloween2 reductions have trimmed scheduled demand across our 10 automated airports by 6.2% versus the following Monday (and 7.8% versus the previous Monday).

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You can check out3 hourly estimates in this workbook.

1

Thursday, October 20 vs. Thursday, November 10

2

We asked Open AI’s DALL-E for “digital art of dieselpunk skeleton sitting in gothic airport terminal.”

3

While it links to a Google Sheet, it’s an Excel file and relies on the XLOOKUP function, which does not exist in Sheets. You can download the file and open in Excel, which should resolve the #NAME? error; if any readers don’t have Excel, let us know and we can work on a solution.

Aerology

Sun Oct 30 & Mon Oct 31 Outlook