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Sunday, Aug. 28 & Monday, Aug. 29 Outlook
Cold front traversing Northern Plains then Midwest promotes thunderstorms around CHI, high pressure building south from New England doesn't build fast enough; plus AI art
Welcome to any new readers! And as a reminder to long-ish time readers, we’re testing a new format for these outlooks. To both old and new—we’re grateful you’re here.
If you have questions about the content of this outlook, the answers might be in this post (we keep adding to it). Otherwise, let us know if something doesn’t make sense (we welcome feedback of all kinds!).
Sunday, August 28
We forecast TSA will screen 2.288 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.22-2.35 million travelers).
Well ahead of a cold front moving through the Northern Plains, a warm and moist airmass should support thunderstorm development during afternoon in Northern Illinois; coverage looks to be widely scattered, though some could be on the stronger side.
High pressure building down the Eastern seaboard will not have wrestled complete control of the Washington forecast by Sunday: widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected (though coverage is best west of Dulles, which is west of DCA).
Monday, August 29
We forecast TSA will screen 2.200 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.15-2.26 million travelers.)
Storm coverage and strength around Chicago may increase quickly late afternoon and evening alongside the arrival of the cold front. Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture will finally begin to wane.
You can check outhourly estimates in this workbook.
While it links to a Google Sheet, it’s an Excel file and relies on the XLOOKUP function, which does not exist in Sheets. You can download the file and open in Excel, which should resolve the #NAME? error; if any readers don’t have Excel, let us know and we can work on a solution.