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Wednesday, Aug. 24 & Thursday, Aug. 25 Outlook
NYC dries out as high pressure slowly builds in on Wed; nearly stationary frontal boundary remains draped across Gulf/Southeast, though focus of heaviest rains shifts east
Welcome to any new readers! And as a reminder to long-ish time readers, we’re testing a new format for these outlooks. To both old and new—we’re grateful you’re here.
If you have questions about the content of this outlook, the answers might be in this post(we keep adding to it). Otherwise, let us know if something doesn’t make sense (we welcome feedback of all kinds!).
Wednesday, August 24
We forecast TSA will screen 2.067 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.00-2.13 million travelers).
Heavy rains—having dumped 10” across northern Texas—will slowly shift into the Lower Mississippi Valley along with their attendant frontal boundary. DFW looks to be on the western fringe; further east along this stalled front, morning clouds are forecast to somewhat suppress convection development around ATL (though instability eventually wins out to produce isolated thunderstorms).
Thursday, August 25
We forecast TSA will screen 2.298 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.24-2.36 million travelers).
A cold front dips southward out of the Upper Midwest: showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of and along this front across northern Illinois.
Under the influence of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest, moisture increases around DEN.
You can check outhourly estimates in this workbook.
While it links to a Google Sheet, it’s an Excel file and relies on the XLOOKUP function, which does not exist in Sheets. You can download the file and open in Excel, which should resolve the #NAME? error; if any readers don’t have Excel, let us know and we can work on a solution.