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Wednesday, Aug 31. & Thursday, Sep. 1 Outlook
Cold front extending from North Texas to New England will clear the East Coast though gets hung up around DFW.
Welcome to any new readers! And as a reminder to long-ish time readers, we’re testing a new format for these outlooks. To both old and new—we’re grateful you’re here.
If you have questions about the content of this outlook, the answers might be in this post(we keep adding to it). Otherwise, let us know if something doesn’t make sense (we welcome feedback of all kinds!).
One methodological note: we’re now using a modified version of efficiency AAR to measure historical arrival capacities. In cases where the ASPM’s arrival demand metric is less than efficiency AAR, then we take efficiency AAR as is (i.e. no change from initial methodology). In cases where the arrival demand metric is greater than or equal to efficiency AAR, we take the lesser of efficiency AAR and landed; this is done so that capacity is adjusted downwards when fewer aircraft are landed than the advertised rate.
Wednesday, August 31
We forecast TSA will screen 1.973 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 1.91-2.04 million travelers).
A cold front and its associated convection will clear the NYC area by sunrise, though will be slower to push off the New England coast. While not included in our automation, can’t rule out an afternoon thunderstorm for BOS. American and United have published travel waivers covering the East Coast for travel today and Wednesday.
The same cold front is draped across north Texas: moisture is abundant, though it’s difficult to forecast where, specifically, thunderstorms will fire. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance will push shower and thunderstorm coverage out of the mountains and into the plains of northeast Colorado (though monsoonal moisture doesn’t figure in this).
Thursday, September 1
We forecast TSA will screen 2.209 million travelers (± 0.5σ, or a prediction interval of about 38%, is 2.15-2.27 million travelers).
The front across northern Texas will continue to meander, eventually losing its definition as we head into early next week.
You can check outhourly estimates in this workbook.
While it links to a Google Sheet, it’s an Excel file and relies on the XLOOKUP function, which does not exist in Sheets. You can download the file and open in Excel, which should resolve the #NAME? error; if any readers don’t have Excel, let us know and we can work on a solution.